Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 28.743754 32.011872 35.771391 40.484053 46.335586 53.509755 63.221554
2025-03-16 24.209647 28.308624 33.455918 40.629406 50.805336 65.548663 90.512966
2025-03-23 21.097557 25.532657 31.469987 40.461073 54.758280 79.096969 132.415028
2025-03-30 18.906661 23.490057 29.941494 40.407834 58.844380 95.751731 206.874242
2025-04-06 17.060892 21.598228 28.222638 39.548958 61.233678 111.522986 330.433603
2025-04-13 16.271478 21.066858 28.387563 41.771112 70.484228 154.231108 1043.170980
2025-04-20 15.111620 19.823514 27.210025 41.284184 73.836436 186.885449 6214.205225
2025-04-27 14.279746 18.975687 26.534386 41.562125 79.276259 242.081330 NaN
2025-05-04 13.606589 18.296765 26.034017 42.056170 85.738884 330.686561 NaN
2025-05-11 12.966053 17.602989 25.407328 42.129540 91.190351 455.568145 NaN
2025-05-18 12.330605 16.859887 24.598671 41.620448 94.593036 613.049932 NaN
2025-05-25 11.858457 16.346035 24.146986 41.839180 101.020578 996.414811 NaN
2025-06-01 11.349303 15.742329 23.482212 41.468195 105.358378 1712.542433 NaN
2025-06-08 10.886340 15.185481 22.852815 41.074493 109.651487 3819.210701 NaN
2025-06-15 10.460401 14.663982 22.242328 40.620030 113.629946 19145.483674 NaN
2025-06-22 10.097577 14.228345 21.759690 40.417570 119.088323 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 9.696558 13.702490 21.052383 39.482327 119.950683 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 9.605243 13.714220 21.427401 41.653917 142.955045 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.292764 13.312301 20.913843 41.146249 147.534998 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.064712 13.049701 20.669586 41.410266 159.169935 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.868550 12.833664 20.504736 41.894578 174.463136 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.655022 12.574352 20.225248 41.963899 186.805207 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.415270 12.255326 19.792428 41.456274 192.642581 NaN NaN